Saturday, October 29, 2011

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By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer


Moving quickly after the World Series, the Angels opened their offseason by announcing the hiring if Jerry Dipoto on Saturday, September 29th, 2011. Of all the moves the Angels will make this offseason, this one will be the most significant because this will shape the direction for the team for the next decade or so.

From his very introduction, Dipoto made it clear how he wants to run the Angels organization. As Angels fans, we should be excited to hear him say “Championships are what it’s about . . . That’s what the expectations are going to be here. We will be accountable as an organization. We will be accountable to one another. And maybe, most of all, is that we will have a passion about what we do, and you will see it everyday.” Dipoto will be the leader of this organization.

In listening to Dipoto speak, two things immediately impressed me. The passion that Dipoto talked about was truly present. He loves the game and loves the opportunity that he has. He wants to be a student of the game and use that knowledge to make the Angels world champions. He isn’t married to any one school of thought, but instead, seems to be listening to both current statistical analysis as well as old school scouting and development. As John Carpino said after the press conference “He is thinking 24 hours a day about baseball. And that was one of probably the most appealing points about him.”

Secondly, and more importantly, he gave long answers to questions. He answered tough questions and compound questions. However, he didn’t ramble. That tells me that he has a keenly analytical mind and has thought through most of the issues inherent in being a GM. He wasn’t afraid to get into a variety of issues, from player development (which he firmly believes in) to international scouting (which he wants to expand) to how he will work with Mike Scioscia (they have defined jobs). Under Dipoto, the Angels will be more become more efficient.

After the interview, I spoke with Dennis Kuhl about the hiring. In congratulating Kuhl on the hiring, he said “We got the right man.” After listening to Dipoto speak, I couldn’t agree more.

To listen to the entire press conference, including the question and answer session, please click below.



Some quick hits

On how to win games, by Jerry Dipoto: “I believe that the team that controls the counts controls the game.”

On player development, by Jerry Dipoto: “I don’t believe in creating passive players. I believe in creating aggressive, what I would call makeup players. . . I like pitchers who throw strikes, I like pitchers who get them to hit the ball on the ground a lot and/or miss the barrels.”

On the next wave of scouting and player development, by Jerry Dipoto: “It’s going to be refined. It’s going to be efficient. We’re going to know exactly what we’re looking for. We’re going to know exactly what we’re teaching and our players are going to take part in that process.”

On payroll, by Arte Moreno: “I would say that the $130-$140 (million) range, we’re pretty comfortable in.”

On the offseason, by John Carpino: “Jerry (Dipoto) is every bit of an opportunist, as is Arte. And if an opportunity presents itself to fill a need by an opportunity, be it a free agent or a trade, and economically it makes sense, we’re going to do that. We always have.”

On the search process for a new GM, by John Carpino: “We looked at our people, and then their skills came up and then we developed those qualities as part of the overall person that we were looking for. But, we weren’t going in with a predetermined let’s look for a guy that played and came through the front office and scouted. We weren’t doing that.”

On the role Bill Stoneman will play in the organization, by John Carpino: “We think the world of Bill Stoneman. He is an invaluable resource to us. And this process could not have been possible with him.”
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By Jonathan Northrop - AngelsWin.com Columnist

With a dramatic World Series concluding a few nights ago (Congratulations to the Cardinals and their fans), Hot Stove Season is finally fully upon us! As we approach the Winter Meetings, this series of articles can be seen as an Offseason Primer - looking at the different aspects of the Angels team, from the recent past, the year just ended, and 2012 and beyond (or, as the sub-title of the first part described, the "recent past, painful present, and hopeful future"). The other two parts can be found here: Part 1: Introduction and Catcher and Part 2: First Base and Designated Hitter.

Prelude: Stat Talk
In the first part I explained a few popular statistical metrics used by Fangraphs and other sites. In this part I would like to explain some terms that I often use to describe players of different tiers. These terms are largely subjective, although have rough correlates with WAR and other statistics.

  • superstar - one of the dozen or so best players in baseball; a 7+ WAR performer.
  • star - one of the best players at their position; a 5-7 WAR performer.
  • borderline star - one of the top third or so players at their position; a 3-5 WAR performer.
  • quality regular - an average or above average regular; a 2-3 WAR performer.
  • marginal regular/platoon player - a mediocre or below average regular or good bench player; a 1-2 WAR performer.
  • bench player - a 0-1 WAR performer.
  • scrub - a replacement level player; a 0 WAR or worse performer.
These terms are mainly used to describe a player, although they can also be used to refer to a single season. But most players fluctuate somewhat; the terms are mainly used to describe their overall (current) value. For instance, according to WAR Albert Pujols had his first sub-superstar year in 2011 since 2002, with a .907 OPS and a 5.1 WAR, and only his second season out of twelve that he had a WAR below 7.5--a truly remarkable feat. While Pujols, at age 32, may have seen his best years, it is still likely that he can maintain a superstar level for a couple more years or, at the least, he deserves the benefit of the doubt given his "superstellar" record.

Monday, October 24, 2011

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By Jonathan Northrop - Angelswin.com Columnist Extraordinaire

This is the second of a seven part series; part one, the introduction and rundown for Catcher can be found here. Look to see new parts published two or three times a week over the next few weeks.

Preamble: A Tradition of Mediocrity
If you take a look at Angels position players throughout the team's 51-year history, there is a noted lack of superstars. Certainly there have been some big names that have played on the Angels--from Reggie Jackson to Rod Carew to Dave Winfield to Eddie Murray--but most have been in the winding down phases of their careers (to long-term fans of the team this was, of course, a defining feature of the team from the late 70s to the early 90s). If we loosely define "superstar" as being a player who is among the ten or twenty best in the game, we can find superstar-caliber performances by Angels players, from Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus in 2000 to Tim Salmon in 1995 to Doug DeCinces in 1982, but the Angels really haven't had any players that have maintained superstar status for multiple years in a row, with the possible exception of Vladimir Guerrero.

First base has been no exception. Superstars aside, the Angels have struggled to find a legitimate "MOTO" (middle of the order) bat at a position traditionally known for big hitters. From 1979 to 1991, the Angels fielded only two regular first basemen, the decline-phase of Rod Carew and their homegrown fan-favorite Wally Joyner; both were good hitters for the Angels, but nothing special for first base. Since Joyner left, the Angels have gone through a panoply of names such as Lee Stevens, JT Snow, Darin Erstad, Mo Vaughn, and Scott Spiezio. Vaughn's tenure with the Angels is particularly infamous as he was signed to what was at the time the most lucrative contract in baseball and only lasted two years before injury and trade.
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By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

At the end of the 2011 season, Mike Scioscia said one of the areas that the club would need to improve on is its starting pitching depth. It’s extremely rare for an entire rotation to make it through a season unscathed, so, every organization needs to have several capable arms down on the farm.

Going into 2012, the Angels do not have a left-handed starter for their rotation. Having one would prove invaluable in an effort to help keep the opposition unbalanced.

One player vying for a spot in the Angels’ rotation could be Trevor Reckling. Drafted out of St. Benedict’s Prep High School in Newark New Jersey in the 8th round of the 2007 draft, Reckling is back on track and poised for making his major league debut at some point in 2012. After a dismal 2010 season, Reckling posted very good numbers in 2011 up until the second half, when he was shut down with an arm strain.

AngelsWin.com recently caught up with our choice for the Los Angeles Angels top prospect heading into the 2010 season in prospect Trevor Reckling to find out more about what is going on with him. We spoke extensively about his troubles in 2010, including what pitches were giving him trouble, and how he turned things around. We talked about the playoff race in 2011 and how he continued to develop as a pitcher. We got an update about his arm’s status and his outlook for the 2012 season.

Along the way, we found out some interesting things, such as what it was like watching his roommate and fellow New Jerseyite Mike Trout roam the outfield. We learned about how Torii Hunter became a mentor and “like family” to Trevor Reckling to help him develop as a player. For the ladies, we found out his dating status (he’s single!), and about what a perfect day off would be for him.

Hopefully, if things continue to go well for him in 2012, we could be seeing him at some point starting for the Angels.

Click below to listen to our interview with Trevor Reckling.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

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By Jonathan Northrop - Angelswin.com Columnist

INTRODUCTION 
While an exciting World Series is underway (I admit to enjoying seeing Albert Pujols pummel the Rangers tonight with three homers and six RBI), we Angels fans face a long and uncertain offseason. With the Rangers looking like the cream of the crop in the AL West, and the Angels not making the postseason two years in a row for the first time in a decade, Arte Moreno is making swift changes--axing General Manager Tony Reagins and various other brass in the front office. Will this mean radical change on the roster? Will the Angels be big spenders this offseason in an attempt to keep pace with the Rangers? Or will they bide their time and build a team around the remarkable Mike Trout?

These are questions that I cannot answer, nor will I try to in this series of articles. What I will try to do is provide an overview of the team, position by position, looking at where the team is today, how it got there over the last few years, what we might expect (or hope for) for next year, and what kind of help might be on its way up through the farm system. Consider this both a "state of the nation" and an offseason primer. 

Seven parts, you say? I will be splitting the series up as follows: Catcher, First Base/DH, Middle Infield, Third Base, the Outfield, the Rotation, and the Bullpen, in that order.

Statistical Disclaimer: I will try to stick to "normal" statistics like the triple-slash line (Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage), but will occasionally resort to advanced metrics such as WAR, wOBA, Fielding Runs, etc - all courtesy of that haven of Statnerdom, Fangraphs. If you're unfamiliar with these numbers, WAR (or Wins Above Replacement) is meant to be a catch-all statistic including batting, baserunning, and defense (for hitters) in the form of a number that represents how much better that player is than your garden variety "Replacement Player" which is a fancy--and nicer--way of saying scrub (think Matt Palmer or Paul McAnulty). As a general rule, 0-2 WAR performers are bench players and marginal regulars; 2-3 are quality regulars; 3-5 are borderline stars; 5-7 are stars; 7+ are superstars and MVP-caliber performances, and a WAR of 10 or higher is an all-time great year (pitchers tend to range a bit lower, maybe 1 WAR less as a general rule). Your typical Albert Pujols season is 8 or 9 WAR (his best was 10.1 in 2003). wOBA, on the other hand, is a metric used to represent a player's offensive value in a range equivalent to On-base percentage. WAR is a good metric to determine overall value, while wOBA is good at determining pure hitting.

Monday, October 17, 2011

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Prince Fielder? Albert Pulos? Jonathan Papelbon? Who will be the FIRST THREE free agents or players acquired via a trade that the Angels will pick up this offseason?

Think you can guess the correct answer? If so, AngelsWin.com has $500 with your name on it!!!

In this contest you get to be part General Manager, part Super Agent and part Carnac the Magnificent. Think about the types of players the Angels need. Think about the free agents that will be available. Think about the types players the Angels have that other teams might want, and who the Angels could get in return for them. Put all that into a blender, mix it up … and make your prediction! $500 could be yours!!!

Rules

Ø Must be a registered member of AngelsWin.com. Registration is free, so if you’re not a member sign up today! Register HERE!

Ø Predictions must be submitted in the Official Contest Thread HERE! 

Ø Only one prediction per member.

Ø No member can select the names of players that have already been submitted by another member. If duplicate predictions are made, only the member who made their prediction first will be recognized.

Ø Players selected must be newly acquired free agents or players acquired via a trade. Current Angels players who are resigned do not count.

Ø Predictions will be accepted through the end of World Series. After that the Official Contest Thread will be locked and no other predictions can be made.

Ø The cutoff for player acquisitions and/or free agents signings will be March 1, 2012. If there is no winner by this date, AngelsWin.com reserves the right to extend the contest or cancel the contest with no winner.

Contest Details

We are looking for the AngelsWin.com member who correctly predicts the names of THE FIRST THREE free agents and/or players acquired via trade, or combination thereof, that the Angels pick-up during the offseason. If no one correctly predicts the first three, then we will move on to the member who first selected three of the first four free agents and/or players acquired via trade, or combination thereof. If no one correctly predicts three of the first four, then we will move on to the member who first selected three of the first five free agents and/or players acquired via trade, or combination thereof. And so on. There can only be one winner. So the person who gets their correct prediction in first will be awarded the prize.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

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By Chuck Richter - AngelsWin.com Executive Editor

If it seems as though every time there is a General Manager opening in one of baseball’s larger markets the names Billy Beane and Theo Epstein are tied to those jobs, it’s because they are.

With the resignation (firing) of Tony Reagins, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, their 3 million fans and deep-pocketed owner Arte Moreno are on the hunt for a new boss. The tight-lipped Halos would never leak the names of those baseball executives they intend to court. That hasn’t stopped the media from speculating. Jim Bowden of ESPN rumored everyone but himself as a candidate that the Angels are to target, including Beane and Epstein.

A hiring of either of baseball’s two most famous executives would certainly be big news. That actually happening seems less likely than Jeff Mathis leading the league in hitting in 2012. Beane has a 5% ownership stake in the Oakland Athletics and Epstein seems more interested in leveraging the Angels’ and Chicago Cubs’ openings into a long-term extension with the Red Sox.

It is also unlikely that the Angels will find a replacement in-house. If Reagins was forced out, it’d make little sense to promote one of his top advisers. 

Assuming the Angels will look outside of the organization and towards a fresh perspective; let’s look at some of the top front office talent available – the future GMs of Major League Baseball.

Damon Oppenheimer: VP of Amateur Scouting – New York Yankees
Oppenheimer is a local, having attended the University of Southern California. Approaching 50 years old, Oppenheimer is a bit older than some of the other names on this list, but he is an established name within baseball’s most established organization. The Angels may see Oppenheimer’s scouting background as a good fit. Oppenheimer though may be content to stick with his role with the Yankees and to possibly wait out the tenure of Brian Cashman in hopes of one day owning baseball’s most prestigious executive role. If he is to leave, it would make sense that this would be the year with openings in the country’s second and third largest markets.

MLB Trade Rumors Conversation

Rick Hahn: Assistant General Manager – Chicago White Sox
A Harvard Law graduate, Hahn certainly possesses a well respected intellect. Hahn has paid his dues and has long been rumored to take the reins of a Major League club as he’s received a tremendous amount of credit for his work under Kenny Williams. His introduction to the game came in his role as a sports agent – credentials which suggest a strong understanding of the administrative side of being an executive, including contracts and payroll management. The Angels’ recent front office mishaps may suggest that they’re more interested in a talent evaluator at this point in time.

More on Hahn

John Coppolella: Director of Professional Scouting – Atlanta Braves
Coppolella began his baseball career with the New York Yankees as an intern after graduating from Notre Dame. The pedigree is there as Coppolella has worked for arguably the two most successful franchises of the last two decades. He began his career under Brian Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer and has worked under the mentorship of John Schuerholz (Braves President and former GM) and Frank Wren, current GM for the past five seasons in Atlanta. Born and raised in Orange County, Coppolella worked two summers as an intern for the Lake Elsinore Storm (at the time an Angels affiliate) and one summer for the Angels themselves while still at Notre Dame. If the Angels decide to go young, it’s hard to imagine that anyone that fits that description would have been in a position to absorb more raw baseball knowledge than Coppolella, 33. A local product with a scouting background and strong pedigree, as well as ties to the region and organization, he may just be THE fit for the Halos.

Baseball Prospectus Chat

MLB Trade Rumors Interview

Tony LaCava: Assistant General Manager – Toronto Blue Jays
LaCava is another hot name with southern California ties. In fact, he worked for the Angels beginning in 1989 as scout. No stranger to baseball courtship, LaCava has interviewed for general manager positions in the past with both Seattle and Pittsburgh. Not getting either small-market job may be a blessing for the Blue Jays’ Assistant GM as the both the Cubs and Angels offer better opportunities with greater resources. LaCava’s strength may be his extensive experience as he’s bounced around the league a bunch having worked for (in addition to the Halos) the Braves, Expos and Indians.

Interview with Batter’s Box

MLB Trade Rumors Profile

Saturday, October 1, 2011

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By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

Right now, internet boards are lighting up about whom the Angels should hire as their new GM. As I read post after post about the merits about one candidate over another, I think that most fans are asking the wrong question. Instead of asking who they want for their new GM, fans should be concentrating on what skills they want their new GM to have.

Hiring a new GM isn’t so much about the person as it is about the philosophy and skills necessary for the job. As a fan, I don’t care so much about who runs the team as I do about the performance of the players on the team he assembles. Watching the Angels win on the field is what I care about most, not who runs the organization.
So, as a fan, here’s my list of what I want a new GM to bring to the team. Whichever candidate best fills this list should get the job.

An Outside Man

For more than a decade, the Angels have been run by either Bill Stoneman or his protégé Tony Reagins. It’s time for some outside blood in the organization.

Successful GMs have relationships in other organizations and know a great deal about the needs, talents, and surpluses that other organizations have. They can leverage their relationships with other organizations to make more or better trades. They can look at the talent within the organization and see how an outsider would view it and make more realistic offers.

It’s time to bring in someone new who will rely on honest evaluations of our needs, talents, and surpluses and give a fresh perspective to the team.

An Improved View of Offense

Bill Stoneman was right that pitching wins championships, but he was wrong to ignore the importance of offense in getting there.

The Angels have a desperate need for offense. The Angels have played (and in 2011 lost) too many close games. The Angels had a losing record in 1-run games (27-31), and were held to 2 runs or less 51 times in 2011. From their high of 883 runs scored in 2009, they shed 216 runs by 2011.

The Angels have most of the pitching pieces in place (sans a 4th starter and closer) and seem to do a good job developing pitching internally. However, the same cannot be said about offense. A new GM needs to bring in fresh ideas about developing and playing a better offense at the Major League level. Playing “small-ball” against teams like New York, Boston, and Texas will not cut it in the American League—even with the Angels pitching. This needs to be a systemic improvement. Fixing the offense will go a long way towards fixing the bullpen because it won’t be so taxed over the course of a season.

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By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

When Tony Reagins said that the Angels were “going to try to be creative, aggressive, and see where things shake out”, little did fans realize that he meant the offseason would start with his resignation.

Whether Tony Reagins was fully in charge of Angels, or shared power with Scioscia and Moreno, fans will never know. Whether Tony Reagins made all the decisions on the trades that fans dislike, again, we’ll never know. And whether or not he was fired, or, did the appropriate thing and resigned on his own, we’ll never know. Frankly, at this point, all the speculation about that is immaterial.

Here’s what we do know.

The Good

Under Tony Reagins, the Angels went 363-285 (.560) from 2008-2011. Twice they won the American League West (2008 and 2009).

Tony Reagins signed the ever-popular Torii Hunter as a free agent. He got a steal of a deal when he plucked Bobby Abreu from the bargain basement bin. He also signed Scott Downs as a free agent reliever. Most importantly, he extended Jered Weaver to a below-market deal for the next 5 years.

Unlike his predecessor, Bill Stoneman, Tony made trades. He traded for Dan Haren, Mark Teixeira and Alberto Callaspo. All of these moves have benefitted the club.

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